Dr. Nasser Saidi’s comments appeared an article titled “Surviving the Covid-19 economic crisis” that appeared in MEED on 24th Mar 2020.
Comments from the article are posted below. The full article can be accessed here.
“It looks like the oil price war that is now launched is a strategic move by Saudi Arabia to weaken or destroy shale oil,” says economist Nasser Saidi, founder and president of Nasser Saidi & Associates.
“It was bound to happen. There are two factors negatively effecting oil – renewables and shale. Shale was eating into the Opec plus share. They either wait and continue to lose market share or they act. They could choose now or later. They chose now.”
“I estimate that because of the losses, the GCC needs to raise $160bn-180bn in 2020 to maintain current spending deficits and provide financial support to some industries such as aviation,” says Saidi.
No significant announcements have been made about projects being delayed or cancelled in the region, but the projects sector will be significantly affected by cuts to capital spending. “The likelihood is that many will be delayed or postponed,” says Saidi. “And the net result is that structural adjustment, in terms of diversification, will be more difficult unless they bite the bullet and open up privatisation and public-private partnerships (PPPs). To me, this is the time to provide incentives.”