Dr. Nasser Saidi’s comment (posted below) on Egypt’s interest rate cut and growth prospects appeared in the article titled “Egypt central bank slashes key interest rates by 200 bps” on Reuters dated 29th August 2025.

The below opinion piece titled “Home is where the heart is for GCC wealth funds” was published in the Arabian Gulf Business Insight (AGBI) on 5th September 2024.

An extended version of the published article is posted below. 

Home is where the heart is for GCC wealth funds

The Gulf’s SWFs are stepping up domestic investment

Globally, state-owned investors (SWFs, public pension funds and central banks) are a massive player in financial markets, managing USD 49.7trn in 2023, with SWFs posting a record high USD 11.2trn. GCC SWFs assets touched a peak of USD 4.1trn in 2023. Five GCC SWFs are among the top 10 most active dealmakers globally (Saudi PIF, Abu Dhabi’s ADIA, Mubadala and ADQ, and Qatar’s QIA), supported by the recovery of markets and higher oil prices post-Covid. They were active as well, representing 40% of all investments deployed by sovereign investors last year. But the asset allocation of portfolios is shifting. While GCC SWFs invested in overseas markets (e.g. PIF and ADQ preferred investments in emerging markets; ADIA had three-quarters of its investment value in North America and Europe), they are increasingly shifting to support domestic economic diversification, becoming more active in local and regional opportunities.  

Why are GCC SWF strategies changing?

They are three major drivers.

Firstly, Cold War II is unfolding with growing economic, trade and investment fragmentation and dislocation, threatening deglobalisation and the tectonic shift in global economic geography towards Emerging Asia over the past two decades. Global geo-economic-political risks are growing with historically high debt levels of USD 313trn in 2023, regional wars (Europe, Near East) along with volatile interest rates. Sovereigns also face the risk of the growing weaponisation of the US dollar along with potential sanctions, a freezing and confiscation of assets, (witness Russia) that undermine the rule of law, the operation and architecture of global financial markets. The GCC have to derisk Western financial markets and assets to protect their wealth. Given SWIFT payment system risks, expect the BRICS+ and GCC to develop an alternative multilateral payment system, use national currencies for bilateral payments and the PetroYuan for energy.  The era of free flowing GCC petrodollars is ending.

Secondly, national security considerations increasingly dominate economic policy making globally and regionally. It is imperative for the GCC to shift focus to domestic economic objectives and address domestic and regional opportunities and challenges (economic diversification, food security, AI and related tech, clean energy transition, climate risk mitigation and adaptation). Witness PIF’s investments in Saudi airlines and giga projects, ADQ’s investing $35 bn in Egypt’s Ras El-Hekma this year.  

PIF’s Annual Report 2023 highlights the realities of the changing investment objectives. While AUMs have grown massively (from SAR 563bn in 2015 to SAR 2.9trn in 2023,), the share of international investments share is down (from 29% in 2021 to 20% in 2023), a smaller share of a growing pie. The PIF’s domestic economic objectives are increasingly aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the broad goal of economic diversification, transformation and modernisation, necessitating an inward-focused agenda. Accordingly, the PIF aims to increase AUM to approximately SAR 4trn by 2025, raising the non-oil GDP and job creation contribution of PIF & subsidiaries to a cumulative SAR 1.2trn and to SAR 7.5trn by 2030.

 To support Saudi’s maturing economy, PIF has launched 95 companies since 2017, spanning 13 strategic sectors ranging from EVs to sports and tourism, injecting about SAR 150bn into the local economy annually. Complementing Saudi Arabia’s pro-private sector policies, the PIF has been supporting SMEs and innovative, growth companies in new and emerging sectors. PIF has also been instrumental in attracting firms in innovative sectors to locate in the Kingdom – for example Lucid’s advanced manufacturing plant in Saudi to produce EVs, a SAR 1bn tech fund to attract chip-design companies and Alat’s deals in semiconductors & next generation infrastructure among other.  

Thirdly, Saudi remains a developing economy and a vast country with massive investment opportunities for foreign investment and technologies. PIF’s engagement in supporting capital market development (e.g. listing of Saudi ETFs in Shanghai and Shenzhen, launch of a Riyadh-based multi-asset investment management platform with BlackRock), developing Saudi’s vast unexplored and unexploited mineral wealth (through PIF-backed Manara Minerals), supporting Saudi Industrial Policy (e.g. localising renewable energy components in collaboration with Envision Energy, support from Alat to manufacture robotic systems & heavy machinery) aim to attract FDI and PPP. The PIF is also supporting Saudi’s regional economic expansion and integration strategy, including involvement in developing the Red Sea Council and Western Saudi areas as a stepping stone into the African Continental Free Trade Area, along with the establishment of five companies for investment in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Oman and Sudan.

Ahead of 2030 and as it builds capacity, reallocates its assets and investments, the PIF will increasingly become like Temasek, Singapore’s Public Wealth Fund, taking responsibility to improve the management, performance and productivity of Saudi’s vast public assets (e.g. public infrastructure and commercial assets). Saudi adoption and implementation of a robust Public Investment Management frameworks and moves towards a centralised model of the ownership and governance of public commercial assets held by various ministries/agencies– would not only increase financial returns and maximise the value of the public assets, but it would also increase productivity growth and support fiscal sustainability. Accountability is the other building bloc. PIF has taken a lead in promoting transparency: it is currently placed joint second globally and first in the Middle East for Governance, Sustainability & Transparency in a ranking of the top 100 SWFs by Global SWF.

The bottom line is that GCC SWFs (along with the BRICS+) are gradually redrawing the global financial architecture and landscape and supportive payment system, to becoming more regional and serving domestic economic objectives. This has also supported the creation and growth of an asset management industry in the financial centres of the region (working for the region) versus the prior experience of recycling petrodollars through global financial centres abroad.

The opinion piece titled “A GCC spaceport could bring galactic gains” was published in the Arabian Gulf Business Insight (AGBI) on 4th Jul 2024.

A slightly longer version of the article is posted below.

A GCC spaceport could bring galactic gains

It would support the development of the space economy in its multiple dimensions

The global commercial space economy is expected to grow, conservatively, to over $1.8 trillion by 2035 (from $630 bn in 2023) and become ubiquitous. As space technology costs rapidly decline, countries are developing space programs, investing in next generation launch vehicles (to land on the Moon and/ or Mars) and space exploration. Space transport and logistics systems, space-based production is becoming economical, and tourism more accessible [1]. Beyond spacecraft manufacturing (including launch vehicles), commercial space transportation and enabled industries [2], space technologies are integrated with day-to-day life. Such space-enabled activities are derived from three primary areas: Positioning, Navigation & Timing (PNT), Earth Observation (EO), and Satellite Communication & Connectivity (SatCom). In addition, worldwide government expenditures in space defence and security reached a historic high of over USD 58bn in 2023 and is accelerating in response to geopolitical fragmentation and Cold War II.

Space technologies support a growing proportion of earth-based activities ranging from day-to-day telecommunications or satellite-based internet connectivity in remote locations, GPS [3] for navigation (in cars or phones) to broadcasting (TV and radio via communications satellites). There are currently around 9,900 active satellites in various Earth orbits [4] – of these, 84% are located closer to earth (and are small satellites) and a large proportion are used to enable SatCom and EO.

The bottom line is that we are now increasingly space and satellite dependent. In 2001, only 14 nations operated satellites, but more than 90 now, driven by the reduction in the cost, size, weight, and power of satellites, with a larger number of smaller, distributed low-earth orbit satellites are being launched [5]. As the IoT becomes a reality, core earth-based infrastructure networks and systems – utilities, transportation, water, electricity, energy sources- will be increasing monitored, managed, integrated with and vulnerable to disruption from space (space wars are on the horizon!). Transport & logistics systems will become four-dimensional: land, water, air and space, and increasingly integrated.  For the GCC space transportation – the movement of objects, such as satellites and vehicles carrying cargo, scientific payloads, or passengers, to, from, or in space – will complement their massive investments in air and sea transport and logistics infrastructure.

The GCC Space Race: why the GCC should develop a Spaceport

While the first Arab satellite (Arabsat) was launched in 1985, the UAE is rapidly developing its space activities. UAE is one of the original eight signatories of the Artemis Accords (a set of principles for exploration and conduct in space; Saudi and Bahrain signed these in 2022), it launched the Hope probe in 2020, sent the Rashid Rover to the Moon in 2022, with the next big project being a mission to the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

The GCC are increasing their investments in the satellite industry (UAE’s Yahsat [6] , Qatar’s Es’hailSat satellite company) and developing and implementing space policies. Kuwait and Bahrain launched their first satellites in 2021, while Oman hosts a satellite monitoring station. Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have focused National Space Agencies.  Oman announced its 10-year Policy and Executive Program in 2023 and a national space program. 

Given the growing strategic importance of the space economy, the GCC should build a GCC-Spaceport from which satellites and spacecraft can be launched as part of their space strategies. Indeed, Oman recently announced plans to develop such a spaceport to be operational by 2030 [7].

Developing the space economy should be part of GCC economic diversification strategies and investment in new technologies. A WEF-McKinsey report [8] revealed that investments touched all-times highs of more than USD 70bn in 2021 and 2022. The report forecasts five sectors will generate 60% of the global space economy by 2035: (a) supply chain and transport with increased efficiency and cost-effectiveness via fleet management and supply-chain visibility; (b) food and beverage: supported by efficient last-mile delivery; (c) state-sponsored defence for surveillance; (d) retail, consumer and lifestyle, for online e-commerce services; and (e) digital communications for better connectivity.

Space exploration, space-based production and supply chains are rapidly growing. From a sustainability and climate monitoring standpoint, space-derived data is increasingly used in environmental monitoring (tracking biodiversity, managing natural resources, assessing the impact of disasters) and mitigating climate change risks (e.g. monitoring crop development, map deforestation due to mining projects). As climate change accelerates space-based applications include climate modelling (using AI), storm forecasting, precision farming, autonomous driving, the ability to identify and quantify emissions sources as well as space-based solar power plants. In financial services space uses range from risk modelling to inform insurance policies, to using geolocation to track harvests, flows of goods and impact trading markets. Satellite data can also be used to monitor compliance with the growing ESG market and “green finance” investments.

The GCC’s geographic proximity to the equator provides a comparative advantage for locating a spaceport, providing low escape velocity from Earth. The GCC are also a geopolitically neutral location/hub, providing a reliable partner for the global space industry and countries wanting to access space, amid growing geopolitical tensions.

The GCC Space Port would support the development of the space economy in its multiple dimensions in the GCC, support commercial launch and space located activities, complement their land-sea-air transport infrastructure networks, as well as protect their space related assets. The focus on commercial space activities would also be complemented by commercial space economy financing: providing finance for satellites, space launches and space related activities.

Satellites and networks are increasingly becoming geostrategic assets, with infrastructure (both earth-based, sub-space and space based) becoming vulnerable to disruption or attack. A GCC Spaceport is integral to national security, providing the infrastructure for the launch of satellites, space vehicles as well as missiles.  

Footnotes:

[1] Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, and SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft completed their first missions in 2021. Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin successfully completed seven revenue generating commercial flights (VG in early-Jun 2024). Tourism flights from SpaceX and Space Adventures, when launched, are expected to cost a fraction of the current amounts (a seat on a Virgin Galactic spacecraft is currently priced at about USD 450,000).

[2] Commercial space transportation and enabled industries include launch vehicle manufacturing and services industry, satellite manufacturing, ground equipment manufacturing, satellite services, satellite remote sensing, and distribution industries.

[3] GPS, or the Global Positioning Systems, were first designed by the US government as tools of war to guide missiles. Now, its public use is all around – we use it when exploring a new city or taking a car ride.

[4] https://orbit.ing-now.com

[5] On the downside, the large increase in space objects could become a risk to Earth’s orbit: in this regard, the Space Sustainability Rating initiative was launched to foster voluntary action by satellite operators to reduce the risk of space debris, on-orbit collisions, and unsustainable space operations.

[6] Recently signing an agreement for geostationary satellites with Musk’s SpaceX: https://www.agbi.com/tech/2024/07/yahsat-taps-musks-spacex-for-next-satellite-launches/

[7] https://www.thenationalnews.com/gulf-news/oman/2023/01/18/oman-is-building-the-middle-easts-first-spaceport/

[8] https://www.weforum.org/publications/space-the-1-8-trillion-opportunity-for-global-economic-growth/

The opinion piece titled “The GCC will benefit from a US-China chill” was published in the Arabian Gulf Business Insight (AGBI) on 4th Jun 2024.

A slightly longer version of the article is posted below.

The GCC will benefit from a US-China chill

The Gulf’s expanding strategic links with Asia mean higher growth at home

The US-China tech and trade war has ramped up with President Biden imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods and quadrupling of tariffs on EVs from 25% to a staggering 100 percent! The economic war will intensify in this US election year. Spillover into Europe and Chinese retaliation mean greater global trade and investment fragmentation and dislocation. Trade restrictions have surged, tripling since 2019 to more than three thousand last year, depressing trade growth. Growing protectionism and economic policies increasingly dominated by national security considerations are also negatively affecting capital flows and FDI. The growth of FDI is no longer aligned with growth in trade and GDP. FDI growth has stagnated to near zero since 2010, versus trade and GDP growing annually by an average 4.2% and 3.4% respectively.[1]

In sharp contrast to the gloomy global landscape, President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed is visiting Korea and China to deepen economic, tech, trade, and strategic ties. The growing strategic links of the GCC with Asia & China reinforce three external sector growth drivers acting in conjunction with domestic growth drivers: foreign direct investment (FDI), trade policy reforms and liberalisation, and attraction of human capital. These support non-oil diversification and growth including tech, digital economy & innovation, green economy, and services.

Data from fDi Intelligence shows that greenfield FDI in the Middle East & Africa region, measured by number of projects, bucked the global trend, and grew by 19% yoy to 2658 in 2023 (roughly 16% of global FDI projects). While capital investment fell by 6% to USD 249.8bn in 2023 (due to the spike in green hydrogen projects in 2022), the number of projects and investment were up by 46% and 111% respectively compared to pre-pandemic 2019. Two major takeaways from the data are the growing investments into the Middle East & Africa region from China and the increasing focus on investments into clean energy and renewables.

As the US & EU’s economic war with China widens, the GCC and its Middle East hinterland is becoming an increasingly strategic partner for China. Not only have state-owned investors in the GCC invested more than USD 2.3 billion into China in 2023 (versus USD 100 million in 2022), but recent official trips to China by both Saudi Arabia and the UAE herald further deepening existing economic ties.

China was the top source of FDI from outside the region: at USD 42.1 billion, the country’s share was around 16% of total inflows. The pattern is also changing: Saudi Arabia was the largest recipient of Chinese FDI in 2023 (USD 16.8 billion), with a 10% share of the country’s total outbound capital investment. FDI into Saudi Arabia surged by 111% yoy to USD 28.8 billion; one-fifth going to the EV sector. Such investments not only support asset prices in both regions, but also facilitate adoption of innovative technologies and knowledge transfer into the non-oil sectors.

Investments into renewable energy accounted for just over 40% of total FDI capital investment in the region. China-based Human Horizons EV research, development, manufacturing, and sales joint venture facility in Saudi Arabia is one of the examples, a USD 5.6 billion deal aimed at boosting EV production in the region.

Not only has the region been attracting investments, but more interestingly, firms from the region are growing their global FDI footprint in line with its “Middle Powers” status. UAE’s Dubai World was among the top ten foreign investors in 2023 by project, while Mubadala Investment Group was the top-ranked foreign investor in 2023 by capex and Saudi Aramco was fourth in this list.

Ranging from investments into infrastructure projects (e.g., BRI projects, Etihad Rail in the UAE) and energy transition (e.g., in UAE’s power plants, EVs factories in Saudi Arabia) to Asian investment and asset managers/ family offices setting up operations in the region’s financial centres, economic and financial ties are deepening and widening. In the near-term, cooperation could range from industrial policy partnerships (given institutional and governance similarities in the role of SEZs and SOEs) to linking Saudi & UAE financial markets to Shanghai and Hong Kong, facilitating financial flows. The latter can fund the expansion of partnership in BRI projects, energy, clean tech, and climate tech (given China’s global dominance in green tech), sustainable funding for long-term projects and PPPs. From a medium to longer-term perspective, linkages could involve the adoption of the yuan for trade (the PetroYuan can be used both for energy and non-oil trade, payments and settlement), in addition the extension of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS, an alternative to SWIFT) and arranging central bank digital currency  transfers (facilitating cross-border flows). Considering the ambitions of the GCC and China, the setup of a GCC space port, exploration of space including commercial space travel would be another major potential avenue for cooperation.

GCC will benefit from global fragmentation and China disconnect and decoupling. GCC’s investment deals with China (and more broadly Asia), especially inward FDI, will support a higher growth path in the region (including in the non-oil sector) supported by trade liberalisation.

[1] UNCTAD research.

The opinion piece titled “The Gulf superstorm is a climate change omen” appeared in the Arabian Gulf Business Insight (AGBI) on 6th May 2024.

The article is posted below.

The Gulf superstorm is a climate change omen

As GCC nations diversify their economies, it is critical that new policies are green by design

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. That much is clear as superstorms wash over Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, unleashing unprecedented levels of rainfall and high winds.

Dubai received more than 250mm of rain in one day last month, compared to its standard 140mm per year. The resulting floods overwhelmed infrastructure – roads, shopping malls and public spaces – severely disrupting local life and economic activity.

The floods also disrupted flights at Dubai International Airport, which fortunately proved resilient and was functioning two days after the rains. The government’s disaster recovery response, including Dubai Municipality deploying 2,500 workers to address emergencies, allowed the city to return to normality a few days later. Since then, the UAE has set AED 2 billion ($545 million) aside to pay for and rebuild flood-damaged homes, in addition to announcing an AED 80 billion drainage system as part of Dubai Economic Agenda D33.

So, what lessons can be learned from the storm?

The growing costs and risks of climate change require urgent action from both the public and private sectors.

In the Mena region, all countries aside from Libya and Yemen (given political issues) have submitted their nationally determined contributions reports, while only Kuwait and Palestine have submitted national adaptation plans to the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Developing national frameworks means that both climate adaptation and climate risk mitigation policies must be implemented, along with supporting investments.

Extreme weather events and higher reinsurance costs lead to increased insurance premiums for consumers. Insured global losses from natural disasters totalled $95 billion in 2023. National adaptation plans lower the cost of insurance by increasing public awareness and providing accurate data on climate-related events and vulnerabilities.

In the Middle East and Central Asia region, the International Monetary Fund believes that climate adaptation and strengthening infrastructure resilience will require an annual investment of around 1.6 percent of GDP (roughly $80 billion in 2021).

Furthermore, the agency estimates the cost of enhancing private asset resilience at around 0.5 percent of GDP. These expenses are over and above the estimated annual $250 billion to $310 billion needed to mitigate climate change.

To add to these concerns, those nations with greater financing needs are also the ones least prepared, either due to fiscal limitations, high debt burdens or weak financial development.

Climate change requires businesses to redesign their risk management plans and tools. Are business continuity and business disaster recovery plans climate resilient? Extreme climate events can lead to a reduction in revenue or potential bankruptcy.

BloombergNEF, a research organisation, found that 65 percent of more than 2,000 companies failed to identify assets and operations that may be vulnerable to physical risks. Even fewer companies conduct financial assessments of climate-related risks.

Businesses are also vulnerable to climate-related legal risks. Currently more than 2,500 climate lawsuits are recorded globally. About 55 percent of the 549 lawsuits outside the US have had a climate-positive ruling, according to the London School of Economics.

Climate risk, which encompasses physical and energy transition risks linked to climate change, should be measured and priced. The physical risks are growing and could result in loan and balance sheet losses for banks. Often, the damage is under-reported.

The Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures is pushing corporations to increase exposure reporting. Climate risk pricing should be required by central banks and financial regulators and translated into risk-based financing and loans.

The GCC countries are currently deploying industrial policies to support economic diversification. It is critical that these policies are green by design and imbued with climate adaptation and mitigation measures.

Climate risk mitigation includes energy transition investment and fossil fuel asset de-risking, focused on clean energy, electric mobility, carbon capture and storage and clean tech. These innovations can be private sector-driven.

There are many ways to build climate-resilient infrastructure: through public investment, public-private partnerships, or market-based private sector incentives (such as carbon pricing).

Examples include green hydrogen, solar-powered desalination and district cooling. The GCC already has a comparative advantage in these exportable technologies.

The Gulf states are also applying artificial intelligence to climate action. Abu Dhabi’s G42 developed Jais Climate, the world’s first bilingual large language model dedicated to climate and sustainability, “to inform, inspire and drive awareness about climate change and sustainability”.

AI and machine learning enable complex and multi-dimensional data to be handled more adeptly, which lends itself to climate economy modelling and the forecasting of effective action to help combat climate change.

Climate adaptation, energy transition and green economy policies will drive growth in renewable energy and clean technologies and trade. They can play a critical role in transforming the oil-producing economies and output structures.

Dr Nasser Saidi is the president of Nasser Saidi and Associates. He was formerly chief economist and head of external relations at the DIFC Authority, Lebanon’s economy minister and a vice-governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon

In this interview with Al Arabiya aired on 3rd December 2023, Dr. Nasser Saidi discusses the topic of rising renewable energy investments and the potential role for GCC nations in the backdrop of COP28.

Watch the TV interview at this link as part of the related news article:

Dr. Nasser Saidi participated in the panel discussion hosted by the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) titled “China-GCC FTA Negotiations and Prospects for Broader Economic Collaboration” held as a webinar on Apr 5th, 2023.

The China-Gulf Cooperation Council summit in December 2022 renewed interest in concluding negotiations for a China-GCC free trade agreement. These trade negotiations began in 2004, but progress toward establishing an FTA has proceeded slowly. A finalized FTA with the GCC would be a prestigious accomplishment for Beijing, strengthening China’s economic linkages to the region and potentially boosting trade and investment flows. For their part, GCC governments hope to expand economic cooperation with Asian partners, such as China, to advance ambitious economic diversification agendas. 

What are the key Chinese and GCC interests behind completing an FTA, and what obstacles have posed the biggest challenges to finalizing negotiations? What do FTAs reveal about the nature of Chinese economic diplomacy in the Middle East? How would the establishment of a China-GCC FTA impact trade and investment ties over the short, medium, and long term? Looking beyond the potential FTA, what are the other trends and mechanisms facilitating deeper economic cooperation between China and GCC countries? 

Watch the discussion below:

Dr. Nasser Saidi spoke with Dubai Eye’s Business Breakfast team ahead of the Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s visit to the UAE. The UAE meetings resulted in the travel ban to Lebanon being lifted.
Listen to the full radio interview at https://omny.fm/shows/businessbreakfast/lebanon-economy-nasser-saidi-associates-07-10-2019